Kent Boucher (00:00.536) There's the good news I need, kinda like the UFO stuff. Everyone hates us right now. Let's go ahead and tell the world how autism works and then RFK had the quick scramble and come up with that. Nicolas Lirio (00:12.012) Well, let's not talk about this anymore. So I went to a city council meeting last night to talk to the city council about, can you scoot a little closer to me? We're on the same camera. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, Riley Rozendaal (00:33.454) Nice and cozy. Kent Boucher (00:34.222) He was sitting further away from me for a reason. Nick's been on the onion diet. It's the onion cleanse. Nicolas Lirio (00:38.094) I'm Nicolas Lirio (00:44.684) Dude, I was so self-conscious about my breath this morning. I had to sit real close to this lady at a meeting. But anyway, that's neither here nor there. I was out of city council. Kent Boucher (00:53.248) How do you talk when you're self-conscious about your breath? Nicolas Lirio (00:56.782) like this. gotta make sure that it doesn't. Kent Boucher (01:01.784) Yeah, I think I got a really good idea. Nicolas Lirio (01:05.382) There is I think the only time I like smelled Kent was we were hiking at Lus Hills we were hiking in the Los and then we to get back in the truck together. Yeah, and it was really humid, you know, and then we Yeah, yeah, that was the only time you're not like a smelly guy, you you smelled when human should smell so I don't know about Riley Riley's current office smells like Kent Boucher (01:21.646) I soaked in sweat. Riley Rozendaal (01:34.37) Yeah, Aaron did his due diligence. Nicolas Lirio (01:38.245) Well, that's what he says. I've seen the cat in there. Kent Boucher (01:44.072) Okay rank rank this because we get we have experienced all of these smells in the shop cat pee coon pee or rat pee Rat we'll say rat slash mouse. I think I learned although I think when you really smell rat pee you can tell a little bit of a difference Nicolas Lirio (02:04.371) I, well... Rat and mouse pee. Kent Boucher (02:09.208) That would carry me haunt a virus more worried. But in the news again. Nicolas Lirio (02:11.118) No, I think No, I want to because I think this is gonna come up in the news soon I went to the City Council meeting and not that I went but that it's starting to get talked about to bring up e scooters kids on e scooters Because there are in our town now. I am all for these nicks All for these kids using the fullness of their freedom Kent Boucher (02:32.16) is fighting for a little Nicolas Lirio (02:37.506) But like they don't have a prefrontal cortex that is at all developed and they're going like 25 mile an hour on the road, no helmet, no turn signals, no daylight or nighttime restrictions. They can just be on there. No reflectors on a lot of these things. And my wife and I were walking down the street and when I'm running, I see them all the time, all the time. And I was asking a parent who picks up a kid at the elementary school, elementary school. And they say, yeah, when elementary school is out, boom, there's like a hundred of these little kids zipping out around town to get back home. I think that's awesome. It's really elementary school kids. not middle school. And I think that it's really it's it's it's Kent Boucher (03:08.206) country. Kent Boucher (03:15.842) parenting was to just you know give your kid the set of knives and the shotgun and they'll figure it out and they'll turn out to be a good kid. Nicolas Lirio (03:24.878) I do think that these kids should be allowed to get to and from school on these little e scooters and I even told the city council I am NOT fighting for you to take away their freedom to do this I just there is going to be with the frequency of speed how many of the kids there are on the road and how many interactions they have with cars somebody will be in the news and it'll be a tragic accident I just don't want it to be Knoxville and Kent Boucher (03:52.334) So you argued that the news not be allowed to report on such a fatality, Nicolas Lirio (03:58.51) No, no, and I told them I don't have a big enough brain to figure out what needs to happen but you know if we looked into helmets or Restricting it to certain streets that kid like streets where we know cars are going very slowly You know not the major highways or roads that are going through Knoxville. I think that would be a smart move and I just want to like if if a 27 year old dies on an e-scooter that is that 27 year olds fault if someone who we don't allow to buy alcohol because they can't make good decisions yet dies on an e-scooter. That's probably the decision makers, which is IE us, the adults. That's probably our fault, right? Kent Boucher (04:38.794) So Nick's are you all the way up to 20 years old you got to wear a helmet? Nicolas Lirio (04:42.69) Am I arguing? You know what, I didn't know that Iowa, you didn't have to wear a helmet on your motorcycle. Riley Rozendaal (04:48.236) Yeah, one of the few states, I think. Nicolas Lirio (04:50.542) I actually embarrassed myself in the meeting. Kent Boucher (04:52.514) think you have to, if you don't have a helmet, don't most states have a rule where you have to wear eyewear or something like that so that you don't get a bug in your eye and then wreck and somebody else to... Nicolas Lirio (05:04.003) No one. Riley Rozendaal (05:04.59) No one knows the the unfortunate ness of driving down the road get hit in the face with a grasshopper That's its own tragedy Kent Boucher (05:09.634) Yeah. Nicolas Lirio (05:13.422) It's painful. Yeah the but anyway is interesting and they they were supportive and There are more and more e scooters on the road every single summer right and we're coming up to a big long hot summer and schools about to be out and I Kent Boucher (05:28.15) So are these privately owned e-scooters? Because I know a lot of communities used to have like the... Nicolas Lirio (05:33.386) Yeah, the bird or lime or whatever that that was like a fad. Those businesses are they 10 X'd in two years and now they're a fraction of what they used to be. A lot more people just they're like two or three hundred. Kent Boucher (05:45.146) They're buying their seven year old a 25 mile an hour machine and saying get to school and back. Nicolas Lirio (05:52.364) Yeah. And, and to have a moped, you have to have a license. You have to go through training. You know, it just, it just doesn't make sense on the frequency of how many people could die. You know what I mean? I'm all for kids riding around and getting hurt. And I, but I am all, I'm serious. I'm all for as big a mess as we can clean up, but you can't come back from a traumatic brain injury and you can't come back from, from a death. And so we can't clean up those messes. So I want to restrict those. kids smiling away. Kent Boucher (06:23.918) I've just, we could go down so many roads, but it would just be a long, long fight between you and me. I'm all for sensible regulation. Nicolas Lirio (06:30.146) about regulation. Nicolas Lirio (06:35.158) Yeah, Kent, well, he didn't have a lot of fun when he was a kid and he wants to make sure that everybody else Kent Boucher (06:41.299) I could have dealt with, I could have used some more regulation when I was a kid. Nicolas Lirio (06:46.451) man, well, we got a big long topic. We should get started. I forgot my paperwork. Nicolas Lirio (07:01.39) All right, right before we get started everyone look at your camera Riley here with me on this one three two one Welcome back to the Prairie Farm podcast coffee time Wednesday. I'm your favorite host Nicholas Lirio with your favorite co-host buddy Kent voucher Kent Boucher (07:16.494) Howdy ho. Stole it Riley, you gotta come up with a new one. Nicolas Lirio (07:20.37) Your favorite co-host to the co-host, Bradley Rosendahl. Greetings. Kent Boucher (07:25.686) I hoping for a, Adio Good Neighbor. Riley Rozendaal (07:29.934) Greetings is the best I can come up with on that. Nicolas Lirio (07:31.406) I'm expecting a Cheerio on the way. Well, you saw the heading of this one. You know that we're talking about commodity prices, but there are some major things going on with the commodity prices, some of which everybody knows, some of which we don't, and we want to talk about them. First, Trump goes to China, does a bunch of stuff, but the Kent Boucher (07:33.55) These are all salutations. Kent Boucher (07:52.974) You're just gonna stop there with Trump. You wanted you wanted to lose a bunch of listeners and gain a whole new class of listeners Nicolas Lirio (08:00.942) man, he goes to China and I think he's the president that's been to China the most if you count between the two terms, but I believe this is his first time in this term and he brought with him a slew of CEOs and the whole the idea is that China sells a bunch of stuff to us. No one's allowed to sell basically anything to China and China in a very small amount of time has become the dominant economic power of the world. And so Trump went as a salesperson with all of the best salespeople in the United States. And one of which is the CEO of a little company we call Cargill. Does anybody know where Cargill ranks among the wealthiest private owned company? Number one. It is number one. It has been number one for a long time. CEO. Kent Boucher (08:55.118) You can find that information in the book Barron's. Nicolas Lirio (08:57.794) Yeah, they're they're no joke in terms of. Yeah, yeah, the health of Americans and our livers, the CEO, Brian Sykes, he went and the idea, right, is that they used to buy a of soybeans, maybe even we could sell them a little more corn than we've sold them in the past. And I totally understand there was lip service given that from President Xi, Xi. Kent Boucher (09:03.01) Well, a lot of things. Nicolas Lirio (09:27.182) that they would buy more of our agricultural outputs. But here's the thing. If you look at China's economic market, they have very low prices on pork, which high prices on pork would usually demand for more food for pork because they want to get more. So that's not good for that. They have tons of infrastructure and actual contractional obligations to Brazil on buying out their soybean. soybeans and they are there was one other thing that basically economically would imply they probably aren't going to buy a bunch of our soybeans. There was an uptick in soybean future sales for next year because of this, but I don't know how much it'll actually come to fruition. Kent Boucher (10:18.638) It's not, it's based on projection, not concrete. This is for sure. Nicolas Lirio (10:23.66) Yeah. They could end up buying some of our pork that, know, there are other agricultural things, but when he said agriculture, everybody was thinking soybeans, but maybe he was president. She was purposefully not saying soybeans because he didn't want to put himself back himself into a corner and buy something that they couldn't actually use for profit. And if they could, if they were going to buy it, they'd maybe buy it so cheap. We don't even want to sell it to him at those prices. You know, Riley Rozendaal (10:50.38) Why would they buy soybeans from us and they can buy beans from South America? They'll buy their 25 million bushel, whatever they agree to buy and why not? Nicolas Lirio (10:54.766) cheaper. Nicolas Lirio (11:00.878) And just to show our economic strategy in the past in 2016, right before we did the first terror war, we were roughly 40 % of their soybean usage came from us. Wow. Yep. 2024 we were at 20%. 2025 was at 15%. And the only reason we were so high in 22, 23, 24 is because Brazil is having drought issues or South America was having drought issues. So they weren't producing as much. And so they got a bunch from us, but now Brazil's had plenty of rain. They've got a lot of soybeans. The infrastructure is built. The ports are built out. So are we actually going to see soybeans there? I don't know. It's pretty nuanced issue. But the point is President Trump took out or used his big guns bringing the CEO of America's greatest monopoly to to China to talk to China, which is also well, they're the king of being a monopoly and one monopoly to another. They were able to shout about it. Kent Boucher (12:00.238) from one monopoly to another. Nicolas Lirio (12:02.158) We both understand this. There was a guy, he was the scapegoat for Cargill on a giant collusion thing. Went to jail for years and now he's really open about his story. I can now remember that guy's name, but basically they would ship him to China and he would sit in a room with a literally like four other people that produce some of the things that car and they would have collusion conversations about how they're going to price stuff, price fixing. Kent Boucher (12:05.932) me to hold the door for you sir. owe me. Nicolas Lirio (12:31.042) Yeah. And, and that's all fine and dandy. Well, his wife, they were, they were just like giving him houses and cars and stuff like that. It didn't always show up in his paycheck. and his wife finally figured it out and she was the one who said, you're going to turn yourself in the FBI today because I'm going to call him tomorrow to make sure that he did. Yep. And he did, he went to jail. He was Cargill scapegoat, you know, and, and I don't even know if they got fined for that. Right. Crazy. You would think that we would break it up. I don't even know. Cause Google almost got broken up and then the judge was like, well, two years ago I would have broken you up, but AI is a, is a real threat to your business. So we'll see how this plays out. How is Cargill not, you know what I mean? Kent Boucher (13:16.972) Yeah, well, does it have to do with the fact that they're a private company and not a publicly traded company? Nicolas Lirio (13:26.412) No, Rockefeller, which basically defined what we consider was private. Riley Rozendaal (13:30.646) Well, antitrust has just been not enforced since like the 50s. It's just, you know, these businesses get too big to fail and no one walks in to break them up. Nicolas Lirio (13:41.388) Man. Yeah, so I guess the question is, was China just giving like a political gesture? Kent Boucher (13:46.708) is this new Nicholas I mean you got these new line of shorts now first of all you're arguing for safety regulation now you're arguing for billionaire hurting regulation regulating billionaires he's this country needs less billionaires and more hundred millionaires that's all I'm hearing you say right now Riley Rozendaal (13:58.186) over a new leaf. Nicolas Lirio (14:04.846) I don't I I have this debate in my brain all because it's it's one I do I never like hating on a group of people it's just I'm gonna find myself defending that group of people sure but the the truth is like They provide a lot of jobs and they provide a lot of high-end jobs for people but at the same time they've amassed Unbelievable amount of wealth and now I would also say there's a big difference between someone who on paper is worth a billion dollars because they privately own a company that's worth a billion dollars. Like Vermeer, that's worth over a billion dollars, you know, the family and they're worth like, that's like a $15 billion company and they privately own it and like Amazon, you know, it's worth trillions of dollars and the how many, I don't know how many storefronts they put out of business, but we can blame Bezos all we want. The truth is we're too lazy or don't want to spend the extra money. Kent Boucher (15:00.44) Yeah, think it's fine to point out the failings of entities when they have truly failed and it's hurt others. And I think it even should be pointed out. After we're done pointing that out though, we need to do some soul searching and say, okay, how am I complicit in this happening in my own small way. And until we are willing to do that and then make changes based off of that, You can just count on it getting the spiral we're in. You can count on it to continue spiraling. Riley Rozendaal (15:38.894) I'm gonna I'm gonna play devil's advocate here a little bit. You guys are getting a little too cozy with the billionaires I think that being a billionaire is not wrong in itself, but I think if Kent Boucher (15:52.524) I'm not willing to go, I'm not willing to make that statement there. So if you think I'm cozy with billionaires, I'm not willing to say I objectively know in my heart of hearts that it is not wrong to be a billionaire. I'm not saying that I think it is, I've asked myself that question many, many, many times and spent many hours thinking on it and I just can't get there. Nicolas Lirio (16:14.318) Just so silly because where's the art that's so arbitrary like the the number bill is probably Kent Boucher (16:19.126) Which is probably why I can't get there, but I just I can't I can't get to either side I'm saying yeah after spending that's fair a large amount of time well Nicolas Lirio (16:27.63) for listening, Riley. Riley Rozendaal (16:28.384) I was just saying, the problem for me isn't, I understand that billionaires become billionaires because of the choices of many. However, if they're not paying their fair share, know, you get cases like lots of large companies, I'm not going to name them, for good legal reasons. There are a lot of companies that either move their headquarters or claim profit streams in other countries so they can avoid paying taxes here. if you're going to benefit from Americans, you should pay into the pot like everybody else. And in a meaningful rate. I'm going to pay 20 % tax on my income. Why does a billionaire company pay five? That's always been my question. Nicolas Lirio (17:17.006) 5 % Kent Boucher (17:18.07) Wow, we're finally gonna have a Nick and Riley fight. Riley Rozendaal (17:22.277) These numbers are fuzzy. Nicolas Lirio (17:23.976) Yeah, I a hundred percent agree like I a hundred percent agree that there are billionaires who take more than they give yeah I just absolutely think there are billionaires who have given more to the world than they take in the form of jobs taxes philanthropy What some invention that they made that furthered the world like the guy who the guy was a billionaire who invented ethernet the ethernet cables You know what I mean? Riley Rozendaal (17:50.84) Sounds like it's too nuanced of a topic for us to tackle and still get your- Nicolas Lirio (17:54.638) I feel like we could probably solve it today. Kent Boucher (17:57.691) out of it. I still remain unconvinced either way. Nicolas Lirio (18:01.55) All right. All right. So that's soybeans. Let's talk about corn. This one's actually kind of nuanced as well. The house just passed the E-15 bill. We call it the E-15 bill. It's actually an SRE bill, which is small like, thank you. But it's from their argument was the nationwide consumer and fuel retain retailer choice act. and so the idea is that the small, Riley Rozendaal (18:18.744) finer exemption. Nicolas Lirio (18:31.202) refinery exemption act would allow for more e-15 to get out on the market. Right. And would allow for people who are driving to use it. Now I don't know this exactly. I know that unleaded is like my understanding is it's worse for engines and motors, but better for fuel efficiency. Is that how that goes? Kent Boucher (18:57.358) unleaded versus leaded game Nicolas Lirio (19:00.078) Yeah, or super unleaded or Kent Boucher (19:03.022) I don't remember and I don't know that I ever learned why they used to Why they used to include lead and gas I do know that there was significant human health Impacts that we now are aware of that came from the use of leaded fuel So I don't know performance wise which one was better Nicolas Lirio (19:21.397) but I Interesting. Well, the, I, the futures, the speculation was that by the, if, if this was to come to fruition and the Senate would still have to sign or still have to pass it and the president had to sign, but Kent Boucher (19:37.21) Are you are back to the leaded versus unleaded? Are you saying ethanol free unleaded gas versus ethanol included unleaded gas? yeah. I believe ethanol free unleaded gas is better for like your engine fuel system components. Nicolas Lirio (19:56.354) But I think ethanol helps with your fuel efficiency. Riley Rozendaal (20:01.518) burns hotter than gas. So, un-leaded or ethanol and non-ethanol fuel, let's just say it that way. Non-ethanol fuel is better for like small engines. Like your lawn mowers, weed workers, lots of the manufacturers of those engines recommend that you use un-leaded non-ethanol. Nicolas Lirio (20:04.245) Okay. Kent Boucher (20:23.47) Yeah, it leaves like a it can leave a residue but I think more modern engines that have only existed in the ethanol era. Riley Rozendaal (20:36.622) 2001 or 2003 beyond. Kent Boucher (20:39.19) Yeah, it could be. I think, have engineered their fuel system components to be able to be more compatible. But like my truck, which is old, all my vehicles are old, it is an 06. And when I first got it, which was used, within, I don't know, five or six months, my injectors on my truck were getting plugged up. I ended up having like a significant issue from had to get my injectors all cleaned and everything like that and the mechanic told me is like hey Don't use ethanol anymore That's part of your problem and and so goodbye Nicolas Lirio (21:24.78) fuel has biomass to it you know there's and that would collect right isn't Kent Boucher (21:29.774) Well, technically all fuel comes, I mean, it's fossil fuel, right? It's oil produced by decaying matter. so it theoretically all is related to that. But yeah, just a byproduct of, you know, that type of alcohol, ethanol, leaves that residue in the engine, or in the fuel system components, part of the engine, from my understanding. I'm not by any way an expert mechanic, but you know who is that we should have... Be here at any minute, I don't know, he's coming in today. Nicolas Lirio (22:01.646) Alex on Here's the deal. Here's the deal with cars. It's not that I just don't understand cars. Hey, you just. Well, I want him on his on his own on his own pod. We're playing on how he is quite literally the best mechanic I've ever. Yeah. Kent Boucher (22:10.2) call me. Should we call him? Put him on speaker? Riley Rozendaal (22:13.24) different. Kent Boucher (22:21.55) You guys are gonna get to meet a guy who's gonna be part of our team. Nicolas Lirio (22:25.048) forced to But he, uh, the thing with cars with me is not that like, I don't understand them, which I don't, uh, I can't muster the energy to care enough to pay attention when people start talking about them. You know, I'm like, I'm immediately, my brain goes to autopilot and go, wow, yeah, that's amazing. There's just a few things like that. Okay. Well, by the mid, uh, 2030s, they are expecting to have a consistent 14 or 15 cent increase. on average to the price of corn if we would pass this E15 all the way through. But those same SRE, those same small refinery exemptions would negatively affect soybean prices by roughly 38 to 40 cents per bushel. Now obviously you get less than half of the bushels of soybeans, but it's like a tiny boost, maybe a net negative. in the overall margins for farmers. Wow. Yeah. So it seems like. Kent Boucher (23:32.576) Interesting to see how that would affect crop rotation because right now. yeah almost everywhere You can you could set your your watch to it, right? they got corn on those acres this year It will be soybeans next year Nicolas Lirio (23:45.824) Is it two corn one soybean? that normal rotation? It's every other every other interesting. But how come? I guess they're just Kent Boucher (23:49.897) every other year. Kent Boucher (23:53.771) Some guys do it differently than that. Some guys will go corn on corn. Riley Rozendaal (23:58.208) if they have enough hog manure or fertilizer they can access, know, there's, there's, or, I guess you could say exceptions for every. Nicolas Lirio (24:07.999) Interesting. Kent Boucher (24:08.738) Which would be interesting then if more guys are growing corn on corn, what happens to the amount of nitrogen that's being applied to the soil? Nicolas Lirio (24:18.026) We're to we're about to talk about nitrogen. But first, I should say that in terms of how much corn was planted and how much we expect to grow, we're down six percent, which is a ton, literally like a billion tons of corn. And the price is supposed to be at four forty per bushel this fall on average. That's all projection. Who the heck knows? Now, let's talk about the straight of hormones. Something I don't know that much about. Yeah. it is heavily affecting fertilizer prices and fuel prices. Yes. The world bank reported that the fertilizer price index rose more than 12 % quarter over quarter in Q1 of 2026 directly relating to the straight of hormones is the, is the primary pusher of that. Yep. And it's not, it's not straightforward. Like, we can't get the fertilizer around. It's like, Kent Boucher (24:50.158) and fuel. Kent Boucher (25:08.364) percent increase. Nicolas Lirio (25:15.266) the fuel is more expensive that shuttles the fertilizer around, right? So the price is at $850 per metric ton in April, which is up 80 % since February. Yeah. The, is not, or sorry, that is not fertilizer. That's specifically urea. Okay. So for the fertilizer. And then, and it should be, Stated that fertilizer increased prices are not across the board in the world, right? Because there's different places where they get fertilizer So that just created an average upswing, but some places are gonna quadruple in price and some places might go up 50 % in price, right now that I don't know enough about the straighter hormones and I really don't want to get into the straight or moves too much But before we go on you guys got any other thoughts on that? Kent Boucher (26:11.854) Well, so the my understanding and we probably should talk a little bit about the straight-ahorn moose my understanding is is Until the companies that ensure the shipping vessels are convinced that The boats that they are covering with their insurance aren't going to have a war-related hazard, doesn't matter what treaty gets signed, doesn't matter, I mean it matters, but I mean until they are convinced that those hazards that could literally ruin their company by having a whole bunch of claims on very expensive entities, then no insured vessel is going to be working through the... straight, right? Nicolas Lirio (27:11.006) That is exactly right. It's the insurance companies unwilling to insure. Kent Boucher (27:14.158) So it's not directly influenced or not influenced. It's not directly controlled by a treaty. It's not directly controlled by a ceasefire. It's not direct. If they perceive that, oh yeah, you're not fighting anymore, but there's all these mines left out there that we can't mark chart out. And until all of that is all the anxiety there is put at ease. No insured vessel can get through, right? Nicolas Lirio (27:42.318) Yes, that is my understanding. And I listened to. Oh, man. Kent Boucher (27:47.648) Without the the shipping company taking on the risk themselves. Yes Nicolas Lirio (27:51.586) And that would that would put that ship. They can't take that risk. No one can take that risk. I heard and I cannot remember who it was like a reporter maybe for the New York Times or someone that went to the Strait of Hormuz to see how passable it actually was and tried to get across. And they were like, it is passable. But basically it's through like an internet interconnecting of bribes that it takes to get through there. And the bribes are becoming so Kent Boucher (28:20.302) so there's no like, we're gonna, we're gonna kind of sneak our way through here. You're hitting checkpoints with people that could sink your boat that are, I don't. Nicolas Lirio (28:31.823) I don't remember that part. I just remember him saying like, hey, the bribes are becoming part of the infrastructure. Riley Rozendaal (28:38.51) $2 million a ship, I believe, was the going rate. Nicolas Lirio (28:41.23) Yeah. Kent Boucher (28:41.77) And Iran is the one collecting those bread Nicolas Lirio (28:44.182) I have no idea. Because Iran kind of has a government, but not really. Riley Rozendaal (28:48.622) under the impression it was the government from what I'd seen on the news but I feel comfortable enough to cite a specific source or report Kent Boucher (28:54.798) I think it's important to lay that out because, you know, when you're going to the, so my truck that I cannot get ethanol fuel in, I pay currently 5.29 a gallon for that fuel. And I can't expect that, oh, the war is over. Now gas will be significantly cheaper. It'll be back to what it was pre-war, you know, within a week or two. That's not necessarily true, right? because it has to be all fallout from that war has to, the insurance companies have to be feeling convinced that yes, that is all cleaned up or clear to go. Nicolas Lirio (29:40.214) tangible, provable peace. Kent Boucher (29:42.444) Well, could take a long time. Riley Rozendaal (29:44.686) the only reason that... Gas prices were down around two bucks was that we had a global surplus, you know If you look at production numbers, I can't remember exactly how many barrels it was But it was like a million and a half barrel a day of surplus, you know, we're producing enough price was low but now there's so much demand and your production and your transport is so screwed up that even if Tomorrow there was an official deal and the insurance companies all get together and kumbaya. We can send all the ships through It's still going to take time. You've got to get production back going at full capacity and you've got to get these ships moved. You've to get this oil all over the world. And it's not just, there's not just like a pipeline like, we shut off the valve, know, we'll turn it back on. Nicolas Lirio (30:31.96) I wonder about the oil companies that are pulling it out of the Gulf of Mexico or something and they're probably making a killing. I bet there are oil companies that are so excited that the straight-o... Kent Boucher (30:45.58) Well, but even still, like, remember when I would relate it to when James from Iowa Cover Crop, I've thought about this so many times since he said it, he's like, let's say everybody wanted to restore all the prairie to what it was. You don't have the seed in the world to do that. And the same is true, like, even if you could be like, we have the world's demand waiting at our doorstep. Do you have all the permits you need? Do you have all the... infrastructure, the employees, to man the, I mean, I gotta imagine that that's still a pretty slow process to pivot to for those companies that aren't directly affected by the straight-ahormoves for their own shipping. Nicolas Lirio (31:27.052) Yeah, I mean, I wonder if this will be a nail in the coffin for pushing a bunch more nuclear through, you know, or some other energy source through, but I don't know. The truth is we don't know that much about the straight over moose. Kent Boucher (31:39.426) Yeah, well, and remember the food crisis we had during COVID shutdowns? Mm hmm. Has have things really changed that much from what they were beforehand? No, we saw man, this is a vulnerable system. OK, back to business. You know what I mean? Nicolas Lirio (31:53.698) Well, yeah, mean, but I think that was because we are in a country and in a place where we have so much surplus. Like we so many extra calories thrown our way that even if we lost half the calories thrown our way. Kent Boucher (32:06.232) Turns out we've been turning those calories into fuel in vehicles. Nicolas Lirio (32:09.134) All right last thing having to do with global food market and of course commodity El Nino I don't know if you guys remember this The last time we the last time we talked about this was almost four years ago when El Nino had started And out because I looked into it because I'd never heard of it before well, here's the deal with El Nino it Kent Boucher (32:20.43) How long we Kent Boucher (32:29.934) topic Nicolas Lirio (32:37.928) it at its core, has to do with, look this up to make sure this is right. It has to do with the temperature of the ocean. And so because the temperature of the ocean is higher than El Nino, there's more energy, which means there's more strong, strong weather events. Kent Boucher (32:54.796) Yeah, the heat from the warming, from the warmer ocean temps affects the atmosphere around it. Nicolas Lirio (33:00.898) Yeah. And I heard it said on a podcast basically that the ocean is the world's is the earth's battery. And during an El Nino, the battery has more energy in it. Right. And so here are, but here's the deal. They're expecting to see the ocean at four degrees warmer than they've seen it since recording for an El Nino. So it's a Fahrenheit. great question. I think it was Fahrenheit. Yeah. It was an American. Yeah. Kent Boucher (33:27.498) Fair enough. But buy ice caps. Nicolas Lirio (33:30.894) And and so that will affect the United States. Here's some of the things that will that will happen across the world because of an El Nino this hot India and Southeast Asia weaker monsoons. A lot of their foods depend on exactly a lot more heat and a fertilizer shortage risk kind of coming together, which creates huge insecurity in Southeast Asia, which already Kent Boucher (33:48.974) Yep. Nicolas Lirio (34:00.01) some of the more poor product, second poorest region in the world next to, central Africa. and so food insecurity going on there, Brazil and Argentina, they would actually, the soybeans would benefit, for like in terms of their growth from it, but a lot of their logistics and getting their fertilizer to them would actually, so their margins would be cut, but that would affect our soybean, price if we had an issue with it. Now, a good thing is on the West Coast, we would have less hurricanes going on. I'm sorry, on the East Coast. Kent Boucher (34:37.912) What this? What is that hurricane? Nicolas Lirio (34:40.231) I'm The East goes like in Florida. They should have less hurricanes, which is weird to me. But these the El Nino affects things like tornadoes in the Midwest, right? There's a lot of other factors, but they affect these great climatic events across the whole world. And so if we all of a sudden start having food shortages, actually we're seeing something similar in the native seed industry. We have shortages on specific species in the whole industry. And so because of that, well, Right now, Illinois Bundle Flower, if you ever bought Illinois Bundle Flower from us in the past, retail price, like at the top price, you're talking 12 bucks. Well, right now, we're buying it wholesale for like $45, right? And so I think retail right now, we're charging like 60 or $65. So what do we do? We have less Illinois Bundle Flower and we replace it with other Forbes that hopefully act similarly, have similar benefits. The nice thing about Illinois bundle flowers is the legume and white tail love it, right? So we have to add other legumes or other plants that white tail love to kind of replace that. and it's shorter. you know, we're trying to balance it out. but that puts pressure on like partridge P would be one we'd replace it with. Well, that puts pressure on the supply of partridge P. So my point is if there are fruit risks in Southeast Asia, if there are, rice or, you know, other sort of carb, risk, for wheat, you know, in Southeast Asia, they got to replace it with other things either from other global supply food chains or maybe they're bringing in more fish. And so they're exporting less fish. And so as a whole, it kind of balances out where food just costs more. Right. And this is supposed to be the warmest El Nino that we've ever had. So the climactic. Kent Boucher (36:29.474) Is this the full worst case scenario prediction of this particular El Nino event that is projected or is this like, we can expect all of this to happen? Nicolas Lirio (36:43.756) Yeah. So El Nino always puts greater pressure on food. is, yep. That's consistent, but we normally have a little more infrastructure to handle it. But right now the, the fertilizer and the urea that is shipping across the world isn't really getting there. And we're already having a supply chain issues on the food. you put all those things together. Kent Boucher (36:48.585) We have that. Kent Boucher (36:52.973) center. Nicolas Lirio (37:10.944) Is that going to affect us? Well, our eggs might be $7, but we're not going to be starving. Whereas there are rural communities in southeastern Asia that could literally be starving because of this. So it's a big deal. but yeah, that's a food commodity update. There was a lot of stuff getting thrown and, and, either read this, these, found stuff on Facebook talking about it. So then I would go and, and, read the actual articles or I listened to All in podcasts and they always have a science corner at the end of it and they were talking That's where I heard the El Nino part of it And so I want to actually read off some of these places that I got some of this information So, you know, I'm not making any of this stuff up All right Kent Boucher (37:51.52) Instead just plagiarizing. Yeah Nicolas Lirio (37:53.902) World Bank Datalog, the ORF Middle East, is a news outlet there. Zero Carbon Analytics was talking about the El Nino. The Fence Post was talking about Cargill CEO, which I couldn't find. Like there wasn't that much stuff. You'd think New York Post or, you know, someone or maybe the Chicago trade board would be talking about CEO of Cargill. But I didn't see anything else. Kent Boucher (38:21.582) just think there's too much news to keep up with these days. Yeah, there's like there always has been but there really is so much news to keep up In every avenue. Nicolas Lirio (38:28.174) It's just so well, there's more humans alive than ever and and the truth is I don't know. I've got this friend Chris He's like hard to get a hold of on on the phone and he's I just don't want to be accessible to everybody all the time I got there that shouldn't be good and I don't think I should know I'm not it's not good for me to know all the news all the time Kent Boucher (38:48.654) My phone has rang three times since we Nicolas Lirio (38:53.665) There's a lot of there's a lot of input and output going on but we really appreciate y'all Listening don't forget if you're looking to have some questions answered We've had some plant identification questions on the forum check out the forum the prairie farm comm or hoxie native seeds comm you click the little R form at the top It makes you make an account You don't have to pay anything. That's free. Just want to clear Kent Boucher (39:16.78) We'll try and make it more easily accessible. We've heard and seen the feedback on that. Nicolas Lirio (39:26.476) Yep. We want you guys to be able to get the information as easily as possible. And we want the experts to be able to answer them. Cause by golly, we don't know all the answers on those, but we appreciate you. Good luck with your corn and bean if you grow them and we'll talk to you again next time. Kent Boucher (39:41.998) little laugh at the corn of bean farmers there. Good luck! Riley Rozendaal (39:46.018) Your fertilizer.